The Post-Game Spread: They are (not) who we thought they were
It's time to update our expectations for UConn football this year.
Welcome to The Post-Game Spread, our take on the game story.
Given Saturday’s blowout, this week’s edition will take a slightly different format than in weeks past.
There are many ways to lose a football game, as the UConn Huskies are showing us. While Saturday’s 41-7 setback to Duke is their most lopsided loss of this young season, it’s also the most easily explainable one: UConn was clearly overmatched.
Still, the Huskies committed numerous unforced errors that made a bad day worse. The defense held up a little, but the offense was a non-factor at times, and at other times it was actively hurting the team.
The Huskies lost two fumbles on Saturday. The first was recovered 10 yards away from their own end zone, leading to a quick touchdown. The second was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter.
Quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson went 13-of-28 for 114 yards passing on the day. The Husky receivers continued their trend of being generally ineffective and dropping passes, something head coach Jim Mora called out in his post-game press conference when asked if he’d consider a change under center (he is not).
UConn avoided a shutout by scoring a touchdown with 12 seconds left in the game.
This didn’t do the UConn defense any favors, but that group has struggled to help itself as well. Jackson Mitchell’s ejection on a questionable targeting call didn’t help.
Through four games, UConn has forced only one turnover. Dual-threat quarterbacks have been extremely effective against the Husky defense, and Riley Leonard was the next one to have his day. The Husky secondary is vulnerable, and inexperience at linebacker has led to some bad tackling in key moments.
Going forward, UConn has to pull a page from last season and move on from this downright demoralizing start. Last year’s early stumbles were a bit more excusable; this time Mora’s squad needs to clean up its many mistakes and figure something out offensively.
If they don’t, this may be a two-win season. Or worse.
We’re not going to walk through the pros, cons, or salient facts from a 41-7 loss that made it a 0-4 season. Instead, we’ll revisit expectations for the rest of this season and identify potential opportunities for the Huskies.
Revised Goals for 2023
At this point, the Huskies need to win six of their final eight games to make a bowl, which seems highly unlikely.
Losing badly to Duke is not the issue, but other teams on the schedule have been playing better than expected.
Utah State (Sept. 30 - Home) is 1-3 but has been competitive against quality competition like JMU, Iowa, and Air Force, despite losing to all three. The Aggies are favored by a touchdown as they visit the Huskies this weekend.
USF (Oct. 21 - Home) and Rice (Oct. 7 - Road) met this past weekend, with USF coming out on top, 42-29.
Unlike UConn, both the Bulls and the Owls have earned some respect for their starts to the season. Rice got a big win over Houston, now a member of the Big 12, and the USF just got its first FBS win after putting perennial power Alabama on upset watch last week.
Boston College (Oct. 28 - Road) is not good in the grand scheme of things but has still shown a lot more ability than UConn thus far. That game is not going to go well unless the Huskies clean up their act.
After that, the Huskies visit Tennessee and James Madison, two very good teams that are likely to beat them badly, before hosting Sacred Heart and visiting UMass to close out the season. Those last two games have to be wins.
Updated goals, in order:
Beat Sacred Heart and UMass
Beat Boston College
Win any other game
Avoid blowouts to unspectacular teams like Utah State, Rice, USF, and BC
Find some way to offer hope for 2024 and beyond
How does UConn improve?
Despite all of this negativity, not all is lost.
If you’re a dedicated reader of the Husky Football Forum, you will recall our caution for projecting improvement on last year’s six-win total, citing turnover and game-margin luck in 2022, the overall development needs of the roster as of 2021, and a 2023 slate that was fairly tough.
We thought that could mean a four- or five-win season this year. But it’s trending in a direction much worse than that.
UConn started 1-4 last year and found its way to six wins by picking up some victories that would have been impossible to project before the season, like Fresno State and Liberty. They need to find some of that magic again to grab a couple of wins in these next four games in order to revive hope.
The defense needs to cut out big plays and mistakes, including penalties. UConn fans just have to hope that the team matures on that front.
The offense needs to get off the mat, it looks totally dead. Mora has expressed faith in Roberson at QB, which is probably the right move. But the former Penn State transfer needs to repay that faith by showing signs of improvement over the next three games. The time is now.
An attack featuring the run game and successfully mixing in QB runs along with a crisp, varied passing game is still in the cards for this assemblage of talent, in my opinion.
A banged-up Victor Rosa gutted out 68 yards on 13 carries, just under five yards per carry, against a stout Duke defense and he did well against NC State, too. Devontae Houston left Saturday’s game with an illness, but he and Rosa can certainly form the foundation of a good offense. Houston was moving the ball well all game against FIU.
UConn’s right-side offensive linemen are among the highest-rated in the country by Pro Football Focus. These are the building blocks to hang some hope on. We also got our first look at sophomore Cam Edwards against Duke. He carried the ball 12 times for 43 yards, which is not bad for a first outing.
The Duke loss doesn’t have to be a big deal, but the loss to FIU at home after a hapless performance at Georgia State does not bode well. If the next three games go that poorly, the coaching staff will have to answer some serious questions.
Photo Credit: Ian Bethune